The trade war first began on February 4, 2025 when Trump set a 10% tariff on China, and a later reversed 25% tariffs to Canada and Mexico, which were reinstated a month later. The following weeks have been chaotic, with tariffs being applied, and removed, to be applied again. The last week it seems that the stock market has had enough and the selling began..... Here are how some of my investments look:

VTI and the S&P 500 Track Together

Although the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index is down close to 6% Year-To-Date, it is up over 100% over 5 years, so the value is still is quite high with ABOVE AVERAGE RETURNS for the last 5 years.
Yearly Dividend is currently 1.25%

VBR - Vanguard Small-Cap Value Index

Small Caps are down the most year-to-date at 7.7%, but they also are up over 87% over 5 years, so the value is still is quite high with ABOVE AVERAGE RETURNS for the last 5 years.
Yearly Dividend is currently 1.98%

VXUS - Total International Stock Index

As you can see, the Total International Stock Index is much less volatile when compared to the S&P 500. It is still up nearly 6% this year, and has more average returns over the last 5 years at 45%.
Yearly Dividend is currently 3.2%

VWO - Vanguard Emerging Markets

As you can see this is another less-volatile fund. The Emerging Markets Stock Index is still up 2.77% Year to date. It also has more sub-par returns over the last 5 years at 26%.
Yearly Dividend is currently 3.16%

VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund

As you can see this is another less-volatile fund. The Real Estate Index is now down for the year at -0.76% Year-To-Date. It also has significanly low returns over the last 5 years at 11%.
Yearly Dividend is currently 3.66%

Here is what I am Doing

Since I have about 60% of my investments in cash, I took a small amount around half of one percent of my total (to basically take cash down to 59.5%) and put it in a S&P 500 fund just to play the dip just a little bit. Does it matter? Of course not!!! I will enjoy when once it goes up it will be nice to have that gain. If the S&P 500 goes down more, I will increase my percentage that I move from cash to the S&P 500 fund.

My Prediction

I don't think President Trump is going to back away from tariffs anytime soon. I think there will continue to be a back and forth between countries, with things calming down as a equilibrium is established, probably with several tariffs still remaining on both sides.

Inflation

Since tariffs are paid from the receivers (US Manufacturers for instance), prices WILL GO UP. This is not a guess, it is an economic reality. It will be a step-increase, so it will just happen once, and then be affected by normal inflationary pressures as things move forward.

Stock Correction Period

There are 3 current issues in the world that I am aware of:
- Russia / Ukraine War
- Hamas / Israel War
- Trump Trade Tariffs

There might be some other Black Swan Events such as some terrible revelations with the JFK Files, or the Epstein Files, which I think could happen, but that is much more of an unknown wildcard that the wars and tariffs.

All these things will affect the stock market, but as things settle down, I predict that the market will return back to its very over-priced (Schiller Index - CAPE Ratio of mid thirties) valuations once again.